Meanwhile, the US markets have closed. We take a look at the live Bitcoin price and the prices of the top 25 crypto currencies. Then we look at what we can learn from the last two bear rallies. We also analyze why we may well see a bull storm for Bitcoin in March.
We begin, of course, with the live Bitcoin price and the prices of the top 25 crypto currencies.
Live bitcoin price and prices top 25 crypto drop
At the time of writing, the live Bitcoin price is quoting EUR 38,710.27 ($44,042.88). This is 1.50% lower than when the US markets closed yesterday.
The prices of the top 25 crypto coins are also generally falling. However, there are again some exceptions. The biggest gain of the day right now is for Avalanche (AVAX), which is up 2.93%%. The biggest drop is for Solana (SOL), which is losing 2.87%, making the crypto market remarkably quiet. On the site of Tradeincrypto.com you can analyze all live crypto prices 24 hours a day.
What can we learn from the last two Bitcoin bear rallies?
By now we know that we had a real bear market going on in 2017-2018 and in 2020. Cryptoquant compared these to the price declines we’ve been seeing since 2021. Are we currently in a bear market?
If we compare the current situation to that in 2018, we see that the percentage of BTC on the market at a loss (i.e., where the current price is lower than the purchase price) has increased about 6%. In the bear market of 2018, that percentage grew by about 20%.
In 2018 and 2020, many BTC went to exchanges to be sold. This so-called exchange reserve is now fairly flat. That is to say, investors have not sold despite their fear. Thus, we can conclude that there are too few losers and too few sellers to speak of a third bear market.
This could mean that we either get another substantial correction. In that case we would have to fall back to the price where the supply in loss would be 20%. This is at the level of ± $29,000, as you can read in the complete analysis with chart.
In another case we are dealing with a regular consolidation, which was a temporary interruption of a bull run. In that case, therefore, nice price increases should be in store.
Will March be super Bullish for Bitcoin?
There are indications that this may happen. This is because the market is getting ready for the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision (expected on March).
Jurrien Timmer of investor Fidelity has two scenarios in mind. He outlined these on Twitter.
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I could see it playing out in one of two ways. A: The Fed, through its jawboning, inspires the market to tighten on its own, which will in turn tame the inflation beast and enable the Fed to stop hiking at or near 2%. /2
– Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 16, 2022
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Or, B: The ongoing inflation news will force the Fed to tighten so many times that it eventually “breaks” something, which in turn will force it to pivot much like it did in 2018 after a 20% sell-off in equities. /3
– Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 16, 2022
Analyst Ben Lilly of Jarvis Lab is even more optimistic. Based on historical analysis, he expects the Bitcoin price to turn bullish towards the announcement of new interest rates by the Fed. After that, he expects a sharp decline in prices, after which there will be a good time to buy the dip as he expects Bitcoin to then drop to its lowest point in years.
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1/4 Prior rate hikes follow a pattern that suggests markets turn slightly bullish before the rate hike… Here are two previous examples.
2004
Nasdaq turned soft as market began to price in rate hikes. Market climbed b4 the actual hike, and sold off after. It was a big BTD opp. pic.twitter.com/xS8oRVfZiW
– Ben Lilly (@MrBenLilly) February 15, 2022
Incidentally, another major investor, Jane Street, also exposed for the first time her take on crypto and some of her investment strategy. Our colleagues at Tradeincrypto.com are happy to share this interview with Jane Street, as there is much to learn.
When analysts, as above, claim that there will be a time to buy the dip, it is always good to look for other factors that support this thought. We are, of course, doing that now.
Is the BTC really going to rise in March?
If we look at the stock of Bitcoin at exchanges we see that there is certainly a chance of that happening. In fact, there is extremely little stock of Bitcoin at the exchanges. This means that very many traders are holding onto their coins because they expect a price increase. Lack of supply leads to scarcity and scarcity leads to higher prices. Currently, the supply ratio is 10.87% and that has not been this low since December 2018.
In addition, we see from extensive on-chain analysis that traders are gearing up for a noisy March. In this analysis you will see many indicators. All indicators notwithstanding, Bitcoin of course remains Bitcoin and so we will have to prepare to make profits in an uncertain market. We will of course continue to follow the developments.
Want to stay up to date with the latest price developments?
You can always follow the developments yourself with our WANT crypto analyses or the background articles and previews on the crypto market and Bitcoin. Of course, you can also follow the live quotes 24 hours a day if you want to stay informed in real time. Are you interested in other investments besides crypto? Then our weekly Monday morning price forecast might be a reading tip. “Please note: We never give financial advice, so our contributions can’t be interpreted that way either. Always do your own research and decide on rational grounds if, when, what and how much you want to invest in.”
