Bitcoin update price BTC flat crypto mix problem and Christmas

Bitcoin lunch: Price BTC and crypto, MicroStrategy bull, Plan B and correlation

By now it is lunch time again. The live Bitcoin price and the prices of the top 25 crypto currencies are throwing up surprises. Therefore, despite my unavailability at lunchtime today, I don’t want to withhold the Bitcoin lunch from you. We see how bullish MicroStrategy remains, check in on how Dutch analyst PlanB is doing and see a painfully accurate correlation.

We begin, of course, as usual with the live Bitcoin price and the prices of the top 25 crypto coins.

Live bitcoin price and prices top 25 crypto coins set market on edge

We are currently seeing investors react sharply to any change in the price of Bitcoin and other crypto coins from the top 25 crypto. In fact, the events of recent times are dividing analysts and experts into 2 camps when it comes to the Bitcoin price in the short term. We discussed this in our Bitcoin lunch yesterday.

Also last night, the bears held power. We did see a quieter crypto market, but prices continued to fall. This was notable, as the bullish news that Instagram is going to introduce NFTs on its platform should normally lead to enthusiasm. Naturally, we brought you all the ins and outs this morning. We also warned you directly about potential pitfalls of Insta and NFTs.

You can, of course, check the live Bitcoin price and prices of the top 25 crypto for yourself 24 hours a day (and including now) at the site.

This is how bullish MicroStrategy really is about Bitcoin

Of course, time will tell whether the pessimists are right or whether the optimists, such as Michael Saylor, top executive at MicroStrategy, have the right on their side. That Saylor and thus the company MicroStrategy are bullish is something the top executive emphasizes on a regular basis. He also often says he will “never” sell the company’s Bitcoin.

Now MicroStrategy is a publicly traded company in America. This means that the company must publish quarterly results and discuss them with investors. As we reported earlier, the drop in the BTC price has had a significant impact on the company’s financial management. Saylor therefore anticipated critical questions. In a presentation for investors, he elaborated on Bitcoin’s position before any awkward questions arise. He shared his explanation via Twitter.

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MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge. If the price of #BTC falls below $3,562 the company could post some other collateral. See slides 11-12 in Q1 2022 presentation. #HODL

– Michael Saylor⚡ (@saylor) May 10, 2022

This shows that Saylor’s bullish sentiment is not a role. You read it right. Up to the price of $3,562, there is no problem for MicroStrategy, according to him. Even after that (at a lower price, Bitcoin holdings are no longer enough to cover the company’s debts), he already has a solution in mind. Selling the BTC, as he explains it now, is not part of that.

How does Dutch analyst PlanB view the BTC crisis?

Dutch analyst PlanB developed his own model (the Stock to flow model) to predict the Bitcoin price. He thus became world famous in cryptocurrency circles when his model predicted the Bitcoin price almost to the penny for several months in a row. Based on his ‘ improved’ version of the original S-2-F model, the BTC should end the year at Bitcoin price of $100,000 in December 2021. When this did not happen and the price dropped instead he received a lot of criticism. This criticism he brusquely parried. Since then it became quieter around PlanB. Naturally, we are curious as to how he now views the situation.

Plan B reverts to original S-2-F model

In a recent Tweet, PlanB reveals that he is still under attack. In it he also explains that in his opinion the stock price is currently moving more in line with expectations based on the original S-2-F model (with price target at $55,000) than on the version that brought him so much fame last year.

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My multiple replies in discussions below this tweet seem to be hidden by @Twitter’s shadowban algo…

– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 4, 2022

We also see that he is a lot less certain about his prediction and is taking a wait and see approach. His most recent Tweet speaks volumes in this regard.

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Short Term Holders realized price (light blue) below 2Y holders realized price ~$40K (dark blue). The question is: will STH (and thus BTC) drop to realized price level of ~$24K (black) like 2011, 2014 and 2018?

– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 10, 2022

We are clearly seeing the interaction decline, so the question is how soon PlanB will be back in the center.

Bitcoin shows frightening correlation

One of the other things PlanB refers to is the correlation with stock prices. In this post, he draws a comparison between the development of the Bitcoin price and S&P500 stocks.

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S&P500 below $4000

– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 9, 2022

While we do indeed see similar price patterns there, there is another correlation that bears even more frightening similarities.

Namely, in this statistic we see how the price of Bitcoin moves in nearly equal proportion to the price of the Nasdaq. It seems, therefore, that this correlation is a factor to be reckoned with for the time being.

Of course, we will continue to monitor developments, including the correlation with Nasdaq.

Want to stay up to date on the latest stock price developments?

You can always follow the developments yourself with our WANT crypto analyses or the background articles and previews on the crypto market and Bitcoin. Of course, you can also follow the live quotes 24 hours a day if you want to stay informed in real time. Are you interested in other investments besides crypto? Then our weekly Monday morning price forecast might be a reading tip. “Please note: We never give financial advice, so our contributions can’t be interpreted that way either. Always do your own research and decide on rational grounds if, when, what and how much you want to invest in.”